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Market
Effect of Trump's conviction on voter polling by November 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Net Positive Effect • 33%
Net Negative Effect • 33%
No Significant Change • 33%
Major national polling organizations such as Gallup, Pew Research, and FiveThirtyEight
Story
Trump Found Guilty on 34 Counts, Campaign Launches 'Trump Force 47' Amid Net Positive Effect
May 31, 2024, 08:59 PM
Donald Trump has been found guilty of 34 counts of falsifying business records by a jury. The conviction has had mixed reactions among voters and political analysts. Some polls indicate a net positive effect on Trump's overall voter perception, while others suggest it could hurt him among undecided voters. Despite the conviction, Trump's campaign and the Republican National Committee have launched a volunteer neighborhood organizing program called 'Trump Force 47' to capitalize on the outrage over the trial. Additionally, Trump is still eligible to vote in Florida despite being a convicted felon. Sky's @marthakelner notes that the true poll that matters is the polling booth in November.
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Similar markets
Significant negative impact • 33%
No significant impact • 34%
Positive impact • 33%
Increase by more than 5% • 33%
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Remain within 5% of current numbers • 33%
Increase by more than 5% • 33%
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Remain within 5% of current levels • 34%
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Significant positive impact • 33%
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Majority support conviction • 33%
Majority oppose conviction • 33%
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Guilty verdict support increases • 33%
Guilty verdict support decreases • 33%
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Trump wins Republican nomination • 25%
Trump runs as independent • 25%
Trump does not run • 25%
Trump loses nomination but supports another candidate • 25%
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