Loading...
Market
How will Türkiye's relations with NATO change by end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Improved significantly • 25%
Improved slightly • 25%
No change • 25%
Deteriorated • 25%
Official statements from NATO, Turkish Ministry of Foreign Affairs, or major news outlets
Story
Biden Removes Türkiye from 2019 Sanctions List Over Operation Peace Spring, Acknowledging NATO Ally
Jan 17, 2025, 07:16 AM
Outgoing U.S. President Joe Biden has revised a 2019 executive order, removing all references to Türkiye that were related to sanctions imposed due to Türkiye's Operation Peace Spring in Syria. The original executive order, Executive Order 13894, signed by then-President Donald Trump on October 14, 2019, had targeted Türkiye's actions in northeast Syria. Biden's amendments, outlined in Executive Order 14142, reflect changes in the situation on the ground in Syria since the operation concluded over five years ago. The revised order retains the U.S. authority to impose sanctions on individuals who threaten Syria's peace, security, stability, or territorial integrity, or who are involved in serious human rights abuses. This move is seen as an important legal gain for Türkiye, a NATO ally, which had long demanded its complete removal from the 2019 executive order.
View original story
Similar markets
No change • 25%
Officially recognized improvement • 25%
Turkey's withdrawal from NATO • 25%
Worsening relations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Decreased influence • 25%
Increased influence • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased military presence • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Increased diplomatic efforts • 25%
Decreased military presence • 25%
US withdraws from NATO • 25%
US reduces involvement • 25%
US increases involvement • 25%
US remains in NATO • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ukraine joins NATO • 25%
Ukraine remains outside NATO with increased cooperation • 25%
Ukraine receives no further NATO support • 25%
Relations worsen • 25%
Relations improve • 25%
Relations remain the same • 25%
Other diplomatic outcome • 25%
Improved Turkey-EU relations • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Strengthened Turkey-Syria-Iran alliance • 25%
Increased tension with US • 25%
United States • 25%
European Union • 25%
Other • 25%
Russia • 25%
Deteriorated relations with the US • 25%
Improved relations with the US • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other • 25%