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Market
How will Marine Le Pen's trial affect the National Rally (RN) party's popularity by the end of 2024?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increase in Popularity • 25%
Decrease in Popularity • 25%
No Significant Change • 25%
Other • 25%
Public opinion polls and election results
Story
Le Pen's Trial Over Misuse of EU Funds Begins Monday, Threatens 2027 Presidential Ambitions
Sep 30, 2024, 06:05 AM
French far-right leader Marine Le Pen, the longtime head of the National Rally (RN) party, is set to stand trial in a Paris criminal court on Monday over allegations of misusing European Union funds. The trial's outcome could potentially bar Le Pen from running for president in 2027 if she is found guilty, jeopardizing her presidential ambitions.
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Resigns from politics • 25%
Continues in current role • 25%
Takes a different political role • 25%
Suspended from political activities • 25%
All guilty • 25%
All not guilty • 25%
Mixed verdict • 25%
Case dismissed • 25%
Increased support for Le Pen • 25%
Decreased support for Le Pen • 25%
No significant change in support • 25%
Polarized public opinion • 25%
Increase in support • 25%
Decrease in support • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Polarized opinions • 25%
Banned from holding public office • 25%
Allowed to run for president in 2027 • 25%
Receives a fine but no ban • 25%
No penalties • 25%
Increased support for National Rally • 25%
Decreased support for National Rally • 25%
No significant change in support • 25%
Mixed reactions • 25%
No charges filed • 25%
Charges filed against Marine Le Pen • 25%
Charges filed against other National Rally members • 25%
Charges filed against both Le Pen and other members • 25%
Convicted and sentenced to prison • 25%
Convicted but no prison sentence • 25%
Acquitted • 25%
Mistrial or retrial ordered • 25%
Guilty • 25%
Not Guilty • 25%
Mistrial • 25%
Other • 25%
Remains leader • 25%
Resigns voluntarily • 25%
Forced to resign • 25%
Suspended temporarily • 25%
Continues political career • 25%
Steps down temporarily • 25%
Retires from politics • 25%
Other • 25%
Widespread support for Le Pen • 25%
Widespread opposition to Le Pen • 25%
Mixed reactions • 25%
Indifference • 25%