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Market
What will be the outcome of Marine Le Pen's trial by December 31, 2024?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Guilty • 25%
Not Guilty • 25%
Mistrial • 25%
Other • 25%
Official court ruling and news reports
Story
Le Pen's Trial Over Alleged EU Fund Embezzlement Could Bar Her from 2027 Presidential Race
Sep 30, 2024, 06:05 AM
Marine Le Pen, the longtime leader of France's far-right National Rally (RN) party, stands trial in a Paris criminal court on Monday, alongside 26 others, over alleged embezzlement of European Parliament funds. The case centers around accusations that Le Pen and other RN members misused EU funds while serving as Members of the European Parliament (MEPs). If found guilty, Le Pen could potentially be disqualified from running in the 2027 presidential election, a ruling that could doom her presidential ambitions.
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Convicted and banned • 25%
Convicted but granted exception • 25%
Acquitted • 25%
Case dismissed • 25%
Convicted and sentenced to prison • 25%
Convicted but no prison sentence • 25%
Acquitted • 25%
Mistrial or retrial ordered • 25%
Convicted with prison sentence • 25%
Convicted with fine only • 25%
Acquitted • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Continues political career • 25%
Steps down temporarily • 25%
Retires from politics • 25%
Other • 25%
Found guilty and sentenced to prison • 25%
Found guilty but no prison sentence • 25%
Found not guilty • 25%
Trial extended beyond 2024 • 25%
All guilty • 25%
All not guilty • 25%
Mixed verdict • 25%
Case dismissed • 25%
Guilty • 25%
Not Guilty • 25%
Case Dismissed • 25%
Other • 25%
Banned from holding public office • 25%
Allowed to run for president in 2027 • 25%
Receives a fine but no ban • 25%
No penalties • 25%
Remains RN Leader • 25%
Steps Down as RN Leader • 25%
Barred from Running in 2027 • 25%
Other • 25%