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Market
What will be the public reaction in France to Marine Le Pen's trial verdict by April 30, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Widespread support for Le Pen • 25%
Widespread opposition to Le Pen • 25%
Mixed reactions • 25%
Indifference • 25%
Public opinion polls and media reports.
Story
Marine Le Pen Faces Potential Ban from 2027 Presidential Race Over Fake Jobs Trial
Nov 13, 2024, 07:42 AM
Marine Le Pen, leader of France’s right-wing party, faces a potential five-year ban from the 2027 presidential race if convicted of misusing European Parliament funds between 2011 and 2016. The announcement, made yesterday, states that the ban would be mandated unless the court grants an exception. Le Pen has rejected the embezzlement claims, but her presidential bid hangs in the balance as the trial enters its final stretch. The verdict is expected in early 2025. The case, referred to as the fake jobs trial, is based on a 2016 law.
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Similar markets
Increased support for Le Pen • 25%
Decreased support for Le Pen • 25%
No significant change in support • 25%
Polarized public opinion • 25%
Guilty • 25%
Not Guilty • 25%
Mistrial • 25%
Other • 25%
Convicted and sentenced to prison • 25%
Convicted but no prison sentence • 25%
Acquitted • 25%
Mistrial or retrial ordered • 25%
Increase in support • 25%
Decrease in support • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Polarized opinions • 25%
Resigns from politics • 25%
Continues in current role • 25%
Takes a different political role • 25%
Suspended from political activities • 25%
Convicted with prison sentence • 25%
Convicted with fine only • 25%
Acquitted • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
All guilty • 25%
All not guilty • 25%
Mixed verdict • 25%
Case dismissed • 25%
Remains RN Leader • 25%
Steps Down as RN Leader • 25%
Barred from Running in 2027 • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased support for National Rally • 25%
Decreased support for National Rally • 25%
No significant change in support • 25%
Mixed reactions • 25%
Banned from holding public office • 25%
Allowed to run for president in 2027 • 25%
Receives a fine but no ban • 25%
No penalties • 25%
Found guilty and sentenced to prison • 25%
Found guilty but no prison sentence • 25%
Found not guilty • 25%
Trial extended beyond 2024 • 25%