Loading...
Market
What will be the outcome of Marine Le Pen's trial by early 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Convicted and sentenced to prison • 25%
Convicted but no prison sentence • 25%
Acquitted • 25%
Mistrial or retrial ordered • 25%
Official court verdict announced by the French judicial system
Story
Marine Le Pen Faces Five-Year Prison Term and Ban from 2027 Presidential Race over Embezzlement Charges
Nov 13, 2024, 07:01 PM
French prosecutors have demanded a five-year prison sentence and an immediate five-year ban from public office for Marine Le Pen, the leader of the far-right National Rally party, over allegations of embezzling European Parliament funds from 2011 to 2016. The ineligibility sentence applies to Le Pen and all other defendants in the trial. If convicted, Le Pen could be barred from running in the 2027 presidential election, where she is considered a leading candidate. The trial, underway in Paris, is entering its final stages, with a verdict expected in early 2025. Le Pen rejects the embezzlement claims, calling them unfair.
View original story
Similar markets
Convicted and banned • 25%
Convicted but granted exception • 25%
Acquitted • 25%
Case dismissed • 25%
Guilty • 25%
Not Guilty • 25%
Mistrial • 25%
Other • 25%
Convicted with prison sentence • 25%
Convicted with fine only • 25%
Acquitted • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
All guilty • 25%
All not guilty • 25%
Mixed verdict • 25%
Case dismissed • 25%
Found guilty and sentenced to prison • 25%
Found guilty but no prison sentence • 25%
Found not guilty • 25%
Trial extended beyond 2024 • 25%
Guilty • 25%
Not Guilty • 25%
Case Dismissed • 25%
Other • 25%
Continues political career • 25%
Steps down temporarily • 25%
Retires from politics • 25%
Other • 25%
Banned from holding public office • 25%
Allowed to run for president in 2027 • 25%
Receives a fine but no ban • 25%
No penalties • 25%
Remains RN Leader • 25%
Steps Down as RN Leader • 25%
Barred from Running in 2027 • 25%
Other • 25%
Resigns from politics • 25%
Continues in current role • 25%
Takes a different political role • 25%
Suspended from political activities • 25%