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How will Lithuania-China tensions impact EU-China relations by December 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Strengthened EU-China relations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Deteriorated EU-China relations • 25%
Mixed outcomes • 25%
Official EU statements or credible news reports on EU-China diplomatic relations
Story
Lithuania Expels Three Chinese Embassy Staff on November 29, Citing Vienna Convention Violations; China Warns of Countermeasures
Dec 2, 2024, 06:56 AM
Lithuania has expelled three staff members from the Chinese mission, declaring them persona non grata due to activities that violate the Vienna Convention and Lithuanian law. The expulsion occurred on November 29, as confirmed by Lithuania's Foreign Ministry. This move could heighten tensions between Lithuania and China, especially as the incoming Lithuanian prime minister has indicated a willingness to restore diplomatic relations with Beijing. In response, China condemned the expulsion and warned of potential countermeasures, urging Lithuania to cease actions that undermine its sovereignty and diplomatic commitments. No comments have been issued from the Chinese mission in Lithuania regarding the situation.
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Resolved Amicably • 25%
Continued Tensions • 25%
Escalated to EU Level • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Further Deterioration • 25%
Strengthen Ties • 25%
Unclear/Other • 25%
Maintain Current Stance • 25%
Economic Sanctions • 25%
No Action • 25%
Military Posturing • 25%
Diplomatic Measures • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations initiated • 25%
Increased military cooperation between Taiwan and allies • 25%
Escalation into conflict • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Successful peace agreement • 25%
Stalemate with no agreement • 25%
Increased support for Taiwan from other countries • 25%
Increased support for China from other countries • 25%
No significant international response • 25%
U.N. intervention • 25%
No change • 25%
Improvement • 25%
Minor deterioration • 25%
Significant deterioration • 25%
Severe diplomatic fallout • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Improved relations • 25%