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What will be the outcome of China-Lithuania diplomatic tensions by December 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Resolved Amicably • 25%
Continued Tensions • 25%
Escalated to EU Level • 25%
Other Outcome • 25%
Official announcements from both governments or major international news outlets
Story
Lithuania Expels Three Chinese Diplomats as 'Persona Non Grata' on November 29
Dec 2, 2024, 07:57 AM
Lithuania expelled three Chinese diplomatic staff members on November 29, citing violations of international and Lithuanian laws. The Lithuanian Foreign Ministry declared the individuals 'persona non grata' and demanded their departure. The decision comes amid strained relations between the two nations, exacerbated by Lithuania's support for Taiwan and alleged breaches of the one-China principle. China strongly condemned the move, labeling it as provocative and unjustified, and warned of potential countermeasures. Beijing has called on Lithuania to stop actions undermining China's sovereignty and expressed hope that Lithuania's incoming government will work towards improving bilateral ties.
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No significant change • 25%
Deteriorated EU-China relations • 25%
Strengthened EU-China relations • 25%
Mixed outcomes • 25%
Unclear policy • 25%
Further distancing • 25%
Maintaining current stance • 25%
Strengthening ties • 25%
Increased military cooperation between Taiwan and allies • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Escalation into conflict • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations initiated • 25%
Diplomatic downgrading • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
Military exercises near Lithuania • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Stalemate with no agreement • 25%
Escalation of conflict • 25%
Successful peace agreement • 25%
Further deterioration • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Diplomatic breakdown • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Weakened alliances • 25%
Other • 25%
Strengthened alliances • 25%
Worsened relations • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Formal diplomatic break • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
New trade agreement • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%