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Will China downgrade diplomatic relations with Lithuania by June 30, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official announcements from the Chinese Foreign Ministry or major international news outlets
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Lithuania Expels Three Chinese Diplomats as 'Persona Non Grata' on November 29
Dec 2, 2024, 07:57 AM
Lithuania expelled three Chinese diplomatic staff members on November 29, citing violations of international and Lithuanian laws. The Lithuanian Foreign Ministry declared the individuals 'persona non grata' and demanded their departure. The decision comes amid strained relations between the two nations, exacerbated by Lithuania's support for Taiwan and alleged breaches of the one-China principle. China strongly condemned the move, labeling it as provocative and unjustified, and warned of potential countermeasures. Beijing has called on Lithuania to stop actions undermining China's sovereignty and expressed hope that Lithuania's incoming government will work towards improving bilateral ties.
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Economic sanctions • 25%
Diplomatic downgrading • 25%
Military exercises near Lithuania • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Strengthened EU-China relations • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Deteriorated EU-China relations • 25%
Mixed outcomes • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Worsened relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Diplomatic expulsion of Lithuanian diplomats • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Other diplomatic actions • 25%
United States • 25%
Germany • 25%
Russia • 25%
Other • 25%
Strengthening ties • 25%
Maintaining current stance • 25%
Further distancing • 25%
Unclear policy • 25%
