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Will Ukraine lower military conscription age to 18 by March 31, 2025?
4
Ukraine•United States•Russia•Foreign Intelligence Service•SVR•Ukrainian•Volodymyr Zelensky•Washington•Eastern European
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official announcement from the Ukrainian government or verified news outlets
Story
Ukraine to Lower Conscription Age to 18 Amid U.S. Pressure; Eastern European Refugees Expected, SVR Reports
Jan 3, 2025, 07:22 AM
Ukraine is reportedly preparing to lower the age of military conscription to 18 years, with an official decision expected soon. This move comes in response to demands from the United States, as stated by Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR). The SVR claims that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is under pressure from Washington to implement this change. Additionally, Eastern European countries bordering Ukraine are reportedly preparing to accommodate new waves of Ukrainian refugees who may seek to avoid conscription, according to the SVR.
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Similar markets
18 years • 25%
19-20 years • 25%
21-25 years • 25%
26 years or older • 25%
Recruit women • 25%
No change • 25%
Recruit refugees • 25%
Lower draft age • 25%
Conscription age increased • 25%
Conscription age lowered • 25%
Conscription age unchanged • 25%
Other actions • 25%
Age lowered to 18 • 25%
Age raised above 25 • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Age remains at 25 • 25%
Majority oppose lowering age • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Majority support lowering age • 25%
Draft age remains at 25 • 25%
Draft age changed to between 19-24 • 25%
Draft age lowered to 18 • 25%
No change in policy • 25%