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How will public opinion in Ukraine shift regarding conscription age by June 30, 2025?
1
Resolution / Starting Odds
Majority support lowering age • 25%
Majority oppose lowering age • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Reputable public opinion polls or surveys conducted by recognized organizations
Story
Ukraine Rejects US Push to Lower Conscription Age to 18 Amidst Blinken's Advocacy
Dec 5, 2024, 05:47 AM
Ukrainian officials have resisted calls from Washington to lower the conscription age to 18, despite ongoing pressure from the U.S. government. The push to draft younger Ukrainians comes amidst a backdrop where 64% of Ukrainians favor peace negotiations, highlighting a stark contrast in priorities between the Ukrainian populace and U.S. foreign policy objectives. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had previously lowered the conscription age from 27 to 25 in April, a move that was met with resistance. Critics argue that lowering the draft age further would lead to severe domestic consequences and potentially 'destroy the Ukrainian people,' as voiced by a Ukrainian mother. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has been identified as a key figure advocating for this change, aiming to bolster Ukraine's military manpower in the ongoing conflict.
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Similar markets
Draft age lowered to 18 • 25%
Draft age stays at 25 • 25%
Draft age lowered but not to 18 • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Increase in support for conscription • 25%
Decrease in support for conscription • 25%
Increase in opposition to the Ukraine conflict • 25%
Decrease in opposition to the Ukraine conflict • 25%
Increased military enrollment • 25%
Public backlash • 25%
Policy revision • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Lower draft age to 18 • 25%
Maintain current draft age • 25%
Increase draft age • 25%
Other policy changes • 25%
Draft age lowered to 18 • 25%
Draft age remains at 25 • 25%
Draft age changed to between 19-24 • 25%
No change in policy • 25%
18 years • 25%
19-20 years • 25%
21-25 years • 25%
26 years or older • 25%
Significant improvement • 25%
Moderate improvement • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Negative impact • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Increase age limit • 25%
Decrease age limit • 25%
Introduce exemptions • 25%
No change • 25%