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Will Eastern European countries see a significant increase in Ukrainian refugees by June 30, 2025?
3
Ukraine•United States•Russia•Foreign Intelligence Service•SVR•Ukrainian•Volodymyr Zelensky•Washington•Eastern European
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Reports from international organizations such as the UNHCR or verified news outlets
Story
Ukraine to Lower Conscription Age to 18 Amid U.S. Pressure; Eastern European Refugees Expected, SVR Reports
Jan 3, 2025, 07:22 AM
Ukraine is reportedly preparing to lower the age of military conscription to 18 years, with an official decision expected soon. This move comes in response to demands from the United States, as stated by Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR). The SVR claims that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is under pressure from Washington to implement this change. Additionally, Eastern European countries bordering Ukraine are reportedly preparing to accommodate new waves of Ukrainian refugees who may seek to avoid conscription, according to the SVR.
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Similar markets
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Moderate increase in refugee movements • 25%
Significant increase in refugee movements • 25%
No significant change in refugee movements • 25%
Decrease in refugee movements • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Resumption of asylum applications • 25%
Other • 25%
Continued suspension • 25%
Increased deportations • 25%
Mediation Efforts • 25%
Increased Sanctions on Russia • 25%
No Significant Change • 25%
Increased Military Aid to Ukraine • 25%
Territory changes hands multiple times • 25%
Russia gains territory • 25%
Ukraine gains territory • 25%
No significant change • 25%
