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Will the U.S. publicly acknowledge pressuring Ukraine to lower conscription age by April 30, 2025?
3
Ukraine•United States•Russia•Foreign Intelligence Service•SVR•Ukrainian•Volodymyr Zelensky•Washington•Eastern European
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official statements from U.S. government or verified news outlets
Story
Ukraine to Lower Conscription Age to 18 Amid U.S. Pressure; Eastern European Refugees Expected, SVR Reports
Jan 3, 2025, 07:22 AM
Ukraine is reportedly preparing to lower the age of military conscription to 18 years, with an official decision expected soon. This move comes in response to demands from the United States, as stated by Russia's Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR). The SVR claims that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is under pressure from Washington to implement this change. Additionally, Eastern European countries bordering Ukraine are reportedly preparing to accommodate new waves of Ukrainian refugees who may seek to avoid conscription, according to the SVR.
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Similar markets
No change in policy • 25%
Draft age changed to between 19-24 • 25%
Draft age remains at 25 • 25%
Draft age lowered to 18 • 25%
Age raised above 25 • 25%
Age lowered to 18 • 25%
Age remains at 25 • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Conscription age lowered • 25%
Other actions • 25%
Conscription age increased • 25%
Conscription age unchanged • 25%
Alternative recruitment strategies adopted • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Conscription age lowered • 25%
Conscription age remains unchanged • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Pressure to lower age • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Encourage other recruitment methods • 25%
Support current policy • 25%
