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What will be the outcome of U.S. pressure on Ukraine regarding military draft age by mid-2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Draft age lowered to 18 • 25%
Draft age remains at 25 • 25%
Draft age changed to between 19-24 • 25%
No change in policy • 25%
Official statements from U.S. or Ukrainian governments or credible news reports
Story
Biden Pressures Ukraine to Lower Military Draft Age to 18, Amid $300B Aid and 100,000+ Desertions
Dec 4, 2024, 04:51 PM
The Biden administration is reportedly pressuring Ukraine to lower its military conscription age to 18, amidst ongoing concerns regarding the conflict with Russia. This push comes as the U.S. has provided substantial financial support to Ukraine, amounting to hundreds of billions of dollars. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had previously lowered the conscription age from 27 to 25 in April, but the move faced backlash and did not yield the desired results. Current discussions suggest that American voices are advocating for an even younger draft age, despite opposition from Ukrainians who do not support the idea of an 18-year-old draft. Additionally, there are reports indicating that over 100,000 Ukrainian soldiers have deserted the military, raising questions about the sustainability of recruitment efforts.
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Draft age lowered to 18 • 25%
Draft age stays at 25 • 25%
Draft age lowered but not to 18 • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Age lowered to 18 • 25%
Age remains at 25 • 25%
Age raised above 25 • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Increased military enrollment • 25%
Public backlash • 25%
Policy revision • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Conscription age lowered • 25%
Conscription age unchanged • 25%
Conscription age increased • 25%
Other actions • 25%
Majority support lowering age • 25%
Majority oppose lowering age • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Lower draft age to 18 • 25%
Maintain current draft age • 25%
Increase draft age • 25%
Other policy changes • 25%
Conscription age lowered • 25%
Conscription age remains unchanged • 25%
Alternative recruitment strategies adopted • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Significant improvement • 25%
Moderate improvement • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Negative impact • 25%
Support current policy • 25%
Pressure to lower age • 25%
Encourage other recruitment methods • 25%
No significant response • 25%