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Will South Korea experience a political stalemate by February 28, 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Reports from credible news outlets indicating a government shutdown or inability to pass legislation
Story
President Yoon Apologizes for Martial Law, Faces Impeachment but Refuses to Resign
Dec 7, 2024, 01:18 AM
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol apologized to the nation on Saturday morning for declaring martial law on Tuesday, which he revoked after six hours. In a televised address lasting about two minutes, Yoon expressed deep remorse, stating, "I am deeply sorry and sincerely apologize for causing inconvenience and anxiety to the people." He pledged not to impose martial law again and said he would yield all administrative power to the ruling People Power Party. The apology comes ahead of a parliamentary impeachment vote scheduled for Saturday evening. Despite widespread calls for his resignation and ongoing mass protests, Yoon did not step down, leaving the decision about his tenure to the ruling party. His actions have plunged the country into political turmoil and raised concerns about a looming political stalemate in South Korea.
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Crisis resolved • 25%
Crisis ongoing • 25%
Escalation of crisis • 25%
Other • 25%
Other Resolution • 25%
Yoon Remains in Power • 25%
Yoon Resigns • 25%
Yoon Impeached • 25%
Yoon is arrested • 25%
Yoon resigns • 25%
Yoon remains in power • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
President Yoon remains in office • 25%
President Yoon resigns • 25%
President Yoon is impeached • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Decreased instability • 25%
Increased instability • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Martial law continues • 25%
Acting President remains • 25%
New President elected • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
New elections called • 25%
Government reshuffle • 25%
Other significant resolution • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Martial law lifted, current government remains • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Martial law lifted, opposition gains power • 25%
Martial law remains, government unchanged • 25%
Other Scenario • 25%
Yoon Suk Yeol remains President • 25%
Interim President Appointed • 25%
New President Elected • 25%
Continued unrest • 25%
Government change • 25%
Stability restored • 25%
Other • 25%