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Market
Will Lebanon elect a president not allied with Hezbollah by the end of 2024?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official announcement from the Lebanese government or reputable international news organizations
Story
White House Seeks to Elect New Lebanese President Amid Hezbollah Weakness, Following Israel's Blow: Axios
Oct 4, 2024, 03:36 PM
The White House is aiming to leverage Hezbollah's current weakness, following a significant blow to its leadership and infrastructure by Israel, to facilitate the election of a new Lebanese president in the coming days. U.S. officials see this as an opportunity to break the two-year deadlock in Lebanon's presidential election. One candidate being considered is General Joseph Aoun, the commander of the Lebanese armed forces, who has the backing of the U.S. and France. The Biden administration's strategy is to elect a president not allied with Hezbollah, prioritizing this over a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. This information was reported by Axios, highlighting the urgency before a diplomatic solution with Israel.
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Candidate B • 25%
Candidate C • 25%
Other • 25%
Yes, with Hezbollah • 25%
Yes, without Hezbollah • 25%
No new coalition • 25%
Other • 25%
Hezbollah-led coalition • 33%
Opposition-led coalition • 33%
Technocrat government • 33%
New Prime Minister • 25%
New President • 25%
No change in leadership • 25%
Other significant political change • 25%
Government collapse • 25%
Increased civil unrest • 25%
New coalition government • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Prime Minister resigns • 25%
Parliament dissolved • 25%
New elections called • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Condemn Hezbollah • 25%
Take military action against Hezbollah • 25%
Do nothing • 25%
Other • 25%
Ibrahim Amin al-Sayyid • 25%
Naim Qassem • 25%
Mohammad Raad • 25%
Other • 25%