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Will Canada and the U.S. sign a new trade agreement by the end of 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official announcements from the Canadian and U.S. governments or verified news outlets
Story
Trudeau and Foreign Minister Joly Reject Trump's Annexation Comments: 'No Chance Canada Joins U.S.'
Jan 7, 2025, 07:45 PM
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau firmly dismissed the idea of Canada becoming part of the United States. "There isn’t a snowball’s chance in hell that Canada would become part of the United States," Trudeau stated. He emphasized that "workers and communities in both our countries benefit from being each other’s biggest trading and security partner." Canada's Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mélanie Joly, added, "Canada will never back down in the face of Donald Trump's threats." Trudeau's remarks were in response to comments by Donald Trump suggesting the integration of Canada into the U.S.
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No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Comprehensive economic integration • 25%
Security agreement • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Trade agreement • 25%
Successful agreement reached • 25%
Ongoing negotiations • 25%
Negotiations stalled • 25%
No agreement, tariffs imposed • 25%
Tariffs imposed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Trade agreement reached • 25%
New trade agreement reached • 25%
Trade tensions escalate • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Tariffs increased • 25%
Improved • 25%
Unchanged • 25%
Worsened • 25%
New trade agreement • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Other resolution • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Negotiated resolution • 25%
Tensions escalate • 25%