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Will the U.S. and Canada reach a formal trade agreement by June 30, 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official statements from the U.S. or Canadian governments or reputable news sources
Story
Trudeau Dines with Trump at Mar-a-Lago Amid 25% Tariff Threat
Nov 30, 2024, 03:00 AM
On Friday night, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau made an unannounced trip to Florida, where he dined with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump at his Mar-a-Lago estate. Trudeau's plane was spotted heading to West Palm Beach, fueling speculation about a meeting amid recent tariff threats. Earlier in the week, Trump had threatened to impose a 25% tariff on goods imported from Canada and Mexico, citing concerns over illegal immigration and drug smuggling. The two leaders discussed trade, border security, fentanyl, and the potential tariffs during their meeting. Following the dinner, Trudeau described the conversation as 'excellent', though specific details were not disclosed.
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes, with major concessions from the U.S. • 25%
Yes, with major concessions from China • 25%
Yes, with equal concessions from both sides • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other developments • 25%
US imposes tariffs, no retaliation • 25%
US imposes tariffs, Canada retaliates • 25%
Tariffs not imposed, negotiations successful • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
New trade agreement reached • 25%
Tariffs increased • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Trade tensions escalate • 25%