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Market
What will be the Taliban's response to the U.S. prisoner swap proposal by March 31, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Accepts proposal • 25%
Rejects proposal • 25%
Proposes counter-offer • 25%
No official response • 25%
Official announcements or verified news reports
Story
Biden Administration Negotiates Swap of Three Americans in Afghanistan for Guantanamo Prisoner Linked to Osama bin Laden
Jan 7, 2025, 12:13 PM
The Biden administration is engaged in negotiations with the Taliban to secure the release of three Americans detained in Afghanistan since 2022. In exchange, the U.S. is considering releasing a high-profile prisoner from Guantanamo Bay, who is alleged to be an associate of Osama bin Laden. The discussions aim to facilitate a prisoner swap, as reported by the Wall Street Journal.
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Similar markets
Negotiations continue • 25%
Negotiations fail • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Successful swap completed • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Other • 25%
Diplomatic efforts for peace • 25%
Increased military operations against ISIS • 25%
Internal security reforms • 25%
Increased security measures • 25%
Retaliatory attacks • 25%
Diplomatic outreach • 25%
No significant response • 25%
No exchange, negotiations collapse • 25%
Successful exchange with ceasefire • 25%
Successful exchange without ceasefire • 25%
No exchange, continued negotiations • 25%
Condemnation • 25%
Neutral • 25%
No official response • 25%
Support • 25%
Other response • 25%
Retaliatory actions • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Increased security measures • 25%
Increased security measures • 25%
Retaliatory attacks • 25%
Other • 25%
Diplomatic measures • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No significant response • 25%
Strong condemnation • 25%
Support • 25%
Moderate condemnation • 25%
