Loading...
Market
What will be the outcome of the hostage swap negotiations by June 30, 2025?
1
Resolution / Starting Odds
Successful exchange with ceasefire • 25%
Successful exchange without ceasefire • 25%
No exchange, continued negotiations • 25%
No exchange, negotiations collapse • 25%
Official announcements from Israel, Hamas, or reliable international news reports
Story
Hamas Approves 34-Hostage Swap Conditional on Ceasefire; Israel Denies Receiving List
Jan 5, 2025, 08:04 PM
Hamas has reportedly approved a list of 34 hostages, including women, children, and the sick, proposed by Israel to be exchanged for Palestinian prisoners as part of a potential ceasefire agreement. The information, reported by Reuters citing an unnamed Hamas official, indicates that the approval of the list is contingent upon Israel agreeing to withdraw its forces from Gaza and establishing a permanent ceasefire. However, the Israeli Prime Minister's Office has denied receiving any such list, stating that Hamas has not provided a list of hostage names up to this moment. The conflicting reports come amid ongoing negotiations in Doha, Qatar, aiming to secure the release of hostages held by Hamas since the escalation of conflict in Gaza.
View original story
Similar markets
Hostages not released • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Hostages released • 25%
Hostages partially released • 25%
Negotiations collapse • 25%
No release of hostages • 25%
Successful release of all hostages • 25%
Partial release of hostages • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
New hostages taken • 25%
Partial hostage release • 25%
Breach Mitigated • 25%
Ransom Paid • 25%
Data Released • 25%
Negotiation Ongoing • 25%
Some hostages released • 25%
Hostage negotiations fail • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
Americans not released, Guantanamo prisoner released • 25%
Americans released, Guantanamo prisoner not released • 25%
No releases • 25%
Americans released, Guantanamo prisoner released • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Some hostages released • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
Negotiations postponed • 25%
Successful ceasefire and all hostages released • 25%
Partial agreement with some hostages released • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Hostages rescued • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
Some hostages released • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
Negotiations continue with no agreement • 25%
Negotiations break down completely • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Agreement reached and hostages exchanged • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
Partial release of hostages • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
Hostages released • 25%
Partial release • 25%
Hostages not released • 25%
Negotiations ongoing • 25%