Loading...
Market
Will a prisoner swap deal between the U.S. and Taliban be finalized by June 30, 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Official announcements from the U.S. government or verified news reports
Story
Biden Administration Negotiates Swap of Three Americans in Afghanistan for Guantanamo Prisoner Linked to Osama bin Laden
Jan 7, 2025, 12:13 PM
The Biden administration is engaged in negotiations with the Taliban to secure the release of three Americans detained in Afghanistan since 2022. In exchange, the U.S. is considering releasing a high-profile prisoner from Guantanamo Bay, who is alleged to be an associate of Osama bin Laden. The discussions aim to facilitate a prisoner swap, as reported by the Wall Street Journal.
View original story
Similar markets
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Negotiations continue • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Negotiations fail • 25%
Successful swap completed • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Successful exchange without ceasefire • 25%
No exchange, continued negotiations • 25%
No exchange, negotiations collapse • 25%
Successful exchange with ceasefire • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
