Loading...
Market
What will be the identity status of the Guantanamo prisoner by February 28, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Identified as a high-profile associate of Osama bin Laden • 25%
Identified as a mid-level associate • 25%
Identified as a low-level associate • 25%
Identity remains undisclosed • 25%
Official announcements or verified news reports
Story
Biden Administration Negotiates Swap of Three Americans in Afghanistan for Guantanamo Prisoner Linked to Osama bin Laden
Jan 7, 2025, 12:13 PM
The Biden administration is engaged in negotiations with the Taliban to secure the release of three Americans detained in Afghanistan since 2022. In exchange, the U.S. is considering releasing a high-profile prisoner from Guantanamo Bay, who is alleged to be an associate of Osama bin Laden. The discussions aim to facilitate a prisoner swap, as reported by the Wall Street Journal.
View original story
Similar markets
All detainees transferred • 25%
Some detainees transferred, some remain • 25%
No detainees transferred • 25%
Guantanamo Bay closed • 25%
All transferred • 25%
No change • 25%
All released • 25%
Some released, some transferred • 25%
Other • 25%
Remain in Guantanamo • 25%
Released within the U.S. • 25%
Transferred to other countries • 25%
All transferred • 25%
Few or none transferred • 25%
Half transferred • 25%
Majority transferred • 25%
More than 15 • 25%
0-5 • 25%
6-10 • 25%
11-15 • 25%
Closure • 25%
Maintain current operations • 25%
Expand operations • 25%
Other • 25%