Loading...
Market
What will be the outcome of the U.S.-Taliban prisoner swap negotiations by March 31, 2025?
3
Biden•Taliban•American•Ryan Corbett•George Glezmann•Mahmoud Habibi•Afghanistan•Afghan•al Qaeda•Guantanamo•Jake Sullivan•House Foreign Affairs Committee•Oman
Resolution / Starting Odds
Successful swap completed • 25%
Negotiations continue • 25%
Negotiations fail • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official announcements from the U.S. government or credible news outlets
Story
Biden Administration Negotiates With Taliban to Swap Ryan Corbett, George Glezmann, Mahmoud Habibi for Guantanamo's Muhammad Rahim al-Afghani
Jan 7, 2025, 12:25 PM
The Biden administration is engaged in negotiations with the Taliban to secure the release of three American citizens, Ryan Corbett, George Glezmann, and Mahmoud Habibi, detained in Afghanistan in 2022, in exchange for Muhammad Rahim al-Afghani, an Afghan man alleged to be a high-level operative of al Qaeda, who has been detained at Guantanamo since 2008. The talks, ongoing since July 2024, were discussed in a classified briefing by White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan to the House Foreign Affairs Committee. This development follows the Biden administration's recent transfer of 11 Guantanamo detainees to Oman, part of an effort to reduce the prison population as the president prepares to leave office on January 20, 2025.
View original story
Similar markets
No releases • 25%
Americans released, Guantanamo prisoner not released • 25%
Americans not released, Guantanamo prisoner released • 25%
Americans released, Guantanamo prisoner released • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No official response • 25%
Accepts proposal • 25%
Proposes counter-offer • 25%
Rejects proposal • 25%
No exchange, negotiations collapse • 25%
Successful exchange with ceasefire • 25%
Successful exchange without ceasefire • 25%
No exchange, continued negotiations • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No release of hostages • 25%
Successful release of all hostages • 25%
Partial release of hostages • 25%
Negotiations collapse • 25%
Successful negotiations • 25%
Stalemate in negotiations • 25%
Escalation of tensions • 25%
No diplomatic engagement • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
Partial release of hostages • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No significant change • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Other • 25%
Hostage negotiations fail • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
Some hostages released • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
Data Released • 25%
Breach Mitigated • 25%
Negotiation Ongoing • 25%
Ransom Paid • 25%