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What will be the status of Israel-Hamas relations by the end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Stable peace • 25%
Continued ceasefire • 25%
Resumption of conflict • 25%
New negotiations • 25%
Reports from credible news agencies and statements from Israeli and Hamas representatives
Story
Trump Announces Israel-Hamas Ceasefire and Hostage Release Deal
Jan 15, 2025, 05:10 PM
President-elect Donald Trump announced that a deal has been reached for the release of hostages in the Middle East, stating, "We have a deal for the hostages in the Middle East. They will be released shortly." A U.S. official has confirmed the agreement, which involves a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. Reports indicate that the deal includes the release of hostages held by Hamas in exchange for Palestinian prisoners held by Israel and a gradual withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza.
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Escalated conflict • 25%
Stalemate • 25%
De-escalation • 25%
Ceasefire • 25%
Complete Israeli control • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Hostage deal with no further conflict • 25%
Ongoing conflict • 25%
Other • 25%
Peace negotiations • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Peace treaty • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Partial hostage release • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Partial agreement • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
Full peace treaty • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No agreement • 25%
Partial ceasefire agreement • 25%
Full ceasefire agreement • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Only Ceasefire • 25%
No Agreement • 25%
Only Hostage Release • 25%
Ceasefire and Hostage Release • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No ceasefire agreement • 25%
Ceasefire without hostage release • 25%
Ceasefire with hostage release • 25%
Ceasefire violated by Israel • 25%
Ceasefire holds without violation • 25%
Ceasefire violated by Hamas • 25%
Ceasefire breaks down completely • 25%