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Trump Announces Israel-Hamas Ceasefire and Hostage Release Deal

Jan 15, 2025, 05:10 PM

President-elect Donald Trump announced that a deal has been reached for the release of hostages in the Middle East, stating, "We have a deal for the hostages in the Middle East. They will be released shortly." A U.S. official has confirmed the agreement, which involves a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. Reports indicate that the deal includes the release of hostages held by Hamas in exchange for Palestinian prisoners held by Israel and a gradual withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza.

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Will all hostages held by Hamas be released by February 28, 2025?

Donald Trump•Middle East•Israel•Hamas•Palestinian•Israeli•Gaza

Resolution / Starting Odds

Yes • 50%

No • 50%

Official announcements from the U.S. government or credible news agencies confirming the release of hostages

Will Israeli forces complete withdrawal from Gaza by April 30, 2025?

Donald Trump•Middle East•Israel•Hamas•Palestinian•Israeli•Gaza

Resolution / Starting Odds

No • 50%

Yes • 50%

Official statements from the Israeli government or credible news reports confirming the withdrawal

Will the Israel-Hamas ceasefire remain in effect until March 31, 2025?

Donald Trump•Middle East•Israel•Hamas•Palestinian•Israeli•Gaza

Resolution / Starting Odds

No • 50%

Yes • 50%

Publicly available reports from credible news agencies and official statements from Israeli and Hamas representatives

How many Palestinian prisoners will be released by Israel by March 31, 2025?

Donald Trump•Middle East•Israel•Hamas•Palestinian•Israeli•Gaza

Resolution / Starting Odds

201 to 300 • 25%

More than 300 • 25%

Less than 100 • 25%

100 to 200 • 25%

Official announcements from the Israeli government or credible news agencies reporting the number of released prisoners

What will be the international reaction to the Israel-Hamas ceasefire and hostage release deal by February 28, 2025?

Donald Trump•Middle East•Israel•Hamas•Palestinian•Israeli•Gaza

Resolution / Starting Odds

Mostly positive • 25%

Neutral or no reaction • 25%

Mostly negative • 25%

Mixed • 25%

Analysis of official statements from major international bodies such as the United Nations, European Union, and key countries

What will be the status of Israel-Hamas relations by the end of 2025?

Donald Trump•Middle East•Israel•Hamas•Palestinian•Israeli•Gaza

Resolution / Starting Odds

New negotiations • 25%

Stable peace • 25%

Continued ceasefire • 25%

Resumption of conflict • 25%

Reports from credible news agencies and statements from Israeli and Hamas representatives