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What will be the state of U.S.-China relations over Taiwan by the end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Improved relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Significant conflict • 25%
Analysis from international relations experts and reports from major news outlets
Story
Biden Approves $571M Aid for Taiwan, Includes Abrams Tanks Amid China Tensions
Dec 23, 2024, 11:09 AM
President Joe Biden has approved $571 million in military aid for Taiwan, including Defense Department materials, services, and military education. The aid is part of ongoing U.S. efforts to bolster Taiwan's defense capabilities amid rising tensions with China, which claims Taiwan as its territory. This assistance follows a series of U.S. arms sales to Taiwan, including $295 million in military equipment announced earlier and $567 million authorized in September. Additionally, Taiwan recently received 38 Abrams tanks as part of a larger order, along with 300 tactical radio systems. China's Ministry of National Defense has condemned the move, stating it violates the one-China principle and the three China-U.S. joint communiqués. Chinese officials have warned that U.S. military support for Taiwan could escalate tensions in the Taiwan Strait and undermine regional stability. Taiwan has expressed gratitude for the aid, viewing it as a reaffirmation of U.S. commitment to its defense.
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Improved relations • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Significant conflict or skirmish • 25%
Increased support for Taiwan • 25%
Maintains current policy • 25%
Decreased support for Taiwan • 25%
Neutral stance • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Decreased tensions • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other • 25%
U.N. intervention • 25%
Increased support for Taiwan from other countries • 25%
Increased support for China from other countries • 25%
No significant international response • 25%
Increased military cooperation between Taiwan and allies • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations initiated • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Escalation into conflict • 25%
Increased military support • 25%
Decreased military support • 25%
Maintained current level of support • 25%
Diplomatic shift without military change • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Other • 25%
Increase in military interactions • 25%
Decrease in military interactions • 25%
No change in military interactions • 25%
Complete cessation of military interactions • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Other • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Severe diplomatic fallout • 25%