Loading...
Market
What will be the position of the new U.S. administration on Taiwan-China relations by July 31, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increased support for Taiwan • 25%
Maintains current policy • 25%
Decreased support for Taiwan • 25%
Neutral stance • 25%
Official policy announcements from the U.S. State Department or White House
Story
China Deploys 60 Warships, 34 Aircraft Near Taiwan Before U.S. Transition
Dec 12, 2024, 08:02 AM
Taiwan has reported the detection of 16 Chinese warships and 34 military aircraft in its vicinity, marking one of the largest maritime deployments by China in recent memory. This escalation comes as Beijing intensifies military pressure on Taipei, with the deployment involving 60 warships and 30 coast guard vessels, according to reports. The activities are part of China's strategy to project power into the Pacific, with Taiwan officials noting the unprecedented scale of the naval presence in the Taiwan Strait. The increased military activity occurs weeks before the U.S. presidential transition, raising concerns about regional stability.
View original story
Similar markets
Increased military support • 25%
Decreased military support • 25%
Maintained current level of support • 25%
Diplomatic shift without military change • 25%
Increased support for Taiwan • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Decreased support for Taiwan • 25%
Other • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Status quo • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Severe diplomatic fallout • 25%
U.N. intervention • 25%
Increased support for Taiwan from other countries • 25%
Increased support for China from other countries • 25%
No significant international response • 25%
Increase in military interactions • 25%
Decrease in military interactions • 25%
No change in military interactions • 25%
Complete cessation of military interactions • 25%
Increase in military aid • 25%
Decrease in military aid • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Significant conflict or skirmish • 25%
Halt arms sales • 25%
Cease military contacts • 25%
Issue diplomatic statement only • 25%
No action taken • 25%
Maintain current policy • 25%
Increase support for Taiwan • 25%
Decrease support for Taiwan • 25%
Shift to a neutral stance • 25%
Strengthened military agreements • 25%
No change in agreements • 25%
Reduced military agreements • 25%
Other • 25%
Strengthened alliances • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Weakened alliances • 25%
Other • 25%