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What will be the resolution for TikTok's operation in the U.S. by June 30, 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Ban is lifted following sale • 25%
Ban is lifted without sale • 25%
Ban is enforced • 25%
Ban is indefinitely postponed • 25%
Official government releases or credible media reports
Story
Supreme Court Upholds TikTok Ban Citing National Security, Unless ByteDance Sells
Jan 17, 2025, 03:40 PM
The U.S. Supreme Court on Friday unanimously upheld a federal law that will ban TikTok starting Sunday unless the app is sold by its China-based parent company, ByteDance. The court ruled that national security concerns related to TikTok's ties to China outweigh potential limitations on free speech for the app's 170 million U.S. users. The decision comes as President-elect Donald Trump has expressed intentions to negotiate a solution, while the Biden administration has indicated it will not enforce the ban on its last day in office. The law, passed with bipartisan support, aims to address concerns over data collection practices and the potential for Chinese government influence on the platform. Without a sale, new users will be unable to download TikTok, and existing users will not receive updates, eventually rendering the app unusable.
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Other resolution • 25%
Banned in the U.S. • 25%
Operates under U.S. subsidiary • 25%
Sold to non-Chinese company • 25%
Ban enforced • 25%
Operational with conditions • 25%
Full operational clearance • 25%
Divestment and restructuring • 25%
Ownership Structure is Dissolved • 25%
Ownership Changes to Another Entity • 25%
Ownership Changes to Project Liberty • 25%
Ownership Remains Unchanged • 25%
Acquired by U.S. entity • 25%
Continues with restrictions • 25%
Complete ban • 25%
Unrestricted operations • 25%
Continues under current ownership • 25%
Banned • 25%
Continues under new ownership • 25%
Temporarily suspended • 25%
International ownership • 25%
U.S. ownership • 25%
ByteDance retains ownership • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Ban • 25%
No change • 25%
Negotiated settlement • 25%
Sale • 25%
Executive order • 25%
Court decision • 25%
Legislative action • 25%
Business negotiation • 25%
Under new joint venture • 25%
Fully operational • 25%
Partially restricted • 25%
Banned • 25%
Other status • 25%
Continues under ByteDance • 25%
Sold to another company • 25%
Operations ceased • 25%
Divestment ongoing • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Divestment blocked • 25%
Divestment completed • 25%
Court ruling enforcement • 25%
Negotiated settlement • 25%
Other resolution • 25%
Legislative action • 25%
Acquired by non-American company • 25%
Not acquired • 25%
Acquired by American company • 25%
No acquisition • 25%