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What will be the primary reason cited for any breakdown of the truce agreement between Hamas and Israel by the end of 2024?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Violation of terms by Hamas • 25%
Violation of terms by Israel • 25%
Intervention by external parties • 25%
Other • 25%
Official announcements from Hamas, Israel, and international mediators; major news outlets
Story
Hamas Approves U.S.-Backed Phased Truce and Hostage Exchange Deal in Gaza, Clearing Way for Ceasefire
Jul 6, 2024, 07:05 PM
Hamas has given initial approval for a U.S.-backed proposal for a phased truce and hostage exchange deal in Gaza, clearing the way for a possible ceasefire. The militant group dropped a key demand that Israel give an up-front commitment for a complete end to the war. Hamas is now seeking written guarantees from mediators that Israel will adhere to the terms of the truce, officials say.
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New Israeli demands • 25%
Internal Palestinian disagreements • 25%
International pressure • 25%
Other • 25%
New conditions set by Netanyahu • 25%
Lack of commitment from Israel • 25%
Disagreement on hostage exchange terms • 25%
Other • 25%
Hamas's lack of seriousness • 25%
Israel's demands • 25%
U.S. mediation failure • 25%
Other reasons • 25%
Rocket attack • 25%
Ground invasion • 25%
Airstrike • 25%
Other • 25%
Border control • 25%
Prisoner exchange • 25%
Humanitarian aid • 25%
Other • 25%
New Israeli conditions • 25%
Disagreements over hostage release • 25%
Lack of international mediation • 25%
Other • 25%
Hostage murders • 25%
Terrorist activities • 25%
Human rights violations • 25%
Other • 25%
Rocket attacks from Gaza • 25%
Israeli airstrikes • 25%
Border skirmishes • 25%
Other • 25%
Ground invasion • 25%
Airstrikes • 25%
Rocket attacks • 25%
Other • 25%
Hostage release terms • 25%
Territorial concessions • 25%
Security guarantees • 25%
Other • 25%
Self-defense against Iran • 25%
Retaliation for attacks • 25%
Preemptive strike • 25%
Other security concerns • 25%
Phased Troop Withdrawal • 25%
Hostage Exchange Terms • 25%
Written Commitments from Mediators • 25%
Other Issues • 25%