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Hamas Approves U.S.-Backed Phased Truce and Hostage Exchange Deal in Gaza, Clearing Way for Ceasefire

Jul 6, 2024, 07:05 PM

Hamas has given initial approval for a U.S.-backed proposal for a phased truce and hostage exchange deal in Gaza, clearing the way for a possible ceasefire. The militant group dropped a key demand that Israel give an up-front commitment for a complete end to the war. Hamas is now seeking written guarantees from mediators that Israel will adhere to the terms of the truce, officials say.

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Will a ceasefire agreement between Hamas and Israel be signed by the end of 2024?

Hamas•Gaza•Israel

Resolution / Starting Odds

Yes • 50%

No • 50%

Official announcements from Hamas, Israel, and international mediators; major news outlets

Will all hostages be exchanged between Hamas and Israel within 60 days of the truce agreement?

Hamas•Gaza•Israel

Resolution / Starting Odds

No • 50%

Yes • 50%

Official announcements from Hamas, Israel, and international mediators; major news outlets

Will the phased truce between Hamas and Israel hold for at least 30 days after implementation?

Hamas•Gaza•Israel

Resolution / Starting Odds

No • 50%

Yes • 50%

Official announcements from Hamas, Israel, and international mediators; major news outlets

What will be the outcome of the phased truce and hostage exchange deal between Hamas and Israel by the end of 2024?

Hamas•Gaza•Israel

Resolution / Starting Odds

Complete ceasefire achieved • 25%

Other • 25%

Truce breakdown and resumed full-scale conflict • 25%

Partial ceasefire with ongoing skirmishes • 25%

Official announcements from Hamas, Israel, and international mediators; major news outlets

What will be the primary reason cited for any breakdown of the truce agreement between Hamas and Israel by the end of 2024?

Hamas•Gaza•Israel

Resolution / Starting Odds

Other • 25%

Violation of terms by Hamas • 25%

Violation of terms by Israel • 25%

Intervention by external parties • 25%

Official announcements from Hamas, Israel, and international mediators; major news outlets

Which entity will primarily mediate the truce agreement between Hamas and Israel by the end of 2024?

Hamas•Gaza•Israel

Resolution / Starting Odds

United States • 25%

United Nations • 25%

Egypt • 25%

Other • 25%

Official announcements from Hamas, Israel, and international mediators; major news outlets