Loading...
Market
What will be the main sticking point in the Israel-Hamas negotiations by December 31, 2024?
2
Joe Biden•Israeli•Benjamin Netanyahu•Hamas•Gaza•Palestinian•Israel•Mossad•David Barnea•Doha•United States•Qatar•Egypt•Biden•Netanyahu
Resolution / Starting Odds
Phased Troop Withdrawal • 25%
Hostage Exchange Terms • 25%
Written Commitments from Mediators • 25%
Other Issues • 25%
Official statements from the involved parties or credible news sources like Reuters or BBC
Story
Biden and Netanyahu Resume Hostage and Ceasefire Talks with Hamas in Doha, Mossad Leads
Jul 5, 2024, 05:27 PM
President Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have resumed discussions on a potential ceasefire and hostage release deal with Hamas in Gaza. The talks have seen significant progress, with Hamas showing a willingness to agree to a phased Israeli troop withdrawal and a gradual exchange of hostages for Palestinian prisoners, which will now take place on the 42nd day of a deal. The head of Israel's Mossad, David Barnea, will lead the Israeli delegation in the negotiations, which are set to take place in Doha. A significant breakthrough was achieved when Hamas dropped its demand for a permanent ceasefire before the agreement, allowing for a temporary ceasefire and continued negotiations over a six-week phase. The United States, Qatar, and Egypt are mediating the talks, with Biden welcoming Netanyahu's decision to reauthorize negotiations. Despite optimism and a positive response from mediators, gaps remain, particularly regarding Hamas's demand for written commitments from the mediators to ensure ongoing negotiations without a time limit. There is a real chance for a deal.
View original story
Similar markets
Hostage release terms • 25%
Territorial concessions • 25%
Security guarantees • 25%
Other • 25%
Border control • 25%
Prisoner exchange • 25%
Humanitarian aid • 25%
Other • 25%
Hostages released, no ceasefire • 25%
Hostages released, ceasefire agreed • 25%
No hostages released, ongoing conflict • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
New Israeli demands • 25%
Internal Palestinian disagreements • 25%
International pressure • 25%
Other • 25%
Hostage deal reached • 25%
Ceasefire agreed • 25%
Both hostage deal and ceasefire • 25%
Neither • 25%
Comprehensive ceasefire achieved • 25%
Partial ceasefire achieved • 25%
Humanitarian aid agreement only • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Permanent ceasefire established • 25%
Temporary ceasefire established • 25%
Ceasefire negotiations collapse • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Complete ceasefire agreement • 25%
Partial ceasefire agreement • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Resumption of hostilities • 25%
Formal ceasefire agreement • 25%
Temporary truce • 25%
Continued conflict • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Hostage release without ceasefire • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Hostage release agreement reached • 25%
Both ceasefire and hostage release agreements reached • 25%
No agreements reached • 25%
Hostages released • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Hostages executed • 25%
Other • 25%