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What will be the main reason cited for the failure of negotiations between Israel and Hamas by the end of Biden's term in January 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Hamas's lack of seriousness • 25%
Israel's demands • 25%
U.S. mediation failure • 25%
Other reasons • 25%
Official statements from involved parties and credible news sources like The Wall Street Journal
Story
Israel-Hamas Deal Unlikely Before End of Biden's Term in January 2025, U.S. Officials Say
Sep 19, 2024, 10:35 PM
Senior U.S. officials have indicated that a cease-fire and hostage-release deal between Israel and Hamas is unlikely to be reached before the end of President Joe Biden's term in January 2025. Despite months of efforts, the officials now privately acknowledge that no agreement is imminent. The Wall Street Journal reports that the administration had previously suggested that a deal was close, but progress has stalled. One official expressed doubt about the deal ever being finalized, citing Hamas's lack of seriousness in negotiations.
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Similar markets
New Israeli demands • 25%
Internal Palestinian disagreements • 25%
International pressure • 25%
Other • 25%
Violation of terms by Hamas • 25%
Violation of terms by Israel • 25%
Intervention by external parties • 25%
Other • 25%
New conditions set by Netanyahu • 25%
Lack of commitment from Israel • 25%
Disagreement on hostage exchange terms • 25%
Other • 25%
Phased Troop Withdrawal • 25%
Hostage Exchange Terms • 25%
Written Commitments from Mediators • 25%
Other Issues • 25%
New Israeli conditions • 25%
Disagreements over hostage release • 25%
Lack of international mediation • 25%
Other • 25%
Lack of mutual trust • 25%
Political instability • 25%
External influence from other countries • 25%
Other reasons • 25%
Hostage release terms • 25%
Territorial concessions • 25%
Security guarantees • 25%
Other • 25%
Border control • 25%
Prisoner exchange • 25%
Humanitarian aid • 25%
Other • 25%
Israeli actions • 25%
Hamas actions • 25%
External interference • 25%
Other • 25%
Body returned • 33%
Prisoner exchange • 33%
No resolution • 33%
Hostage Release Agreement • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
No Agreement • 25%
Other • 25%
Rocket attack • 25%
Ground invasion • 25%
Airstrike • 25%
Other • 25%