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Market
Will citizens return to homes in northern Israel and southern Lebanon by January 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Reports from major news outlets such as BBC, Reuters, or Al Jazeera
Story
Blinken: Lebanon Ceasefire Agreement Nears Finalization, Could Aid Gaza Conflict Resolution Amid U.S. and France Efforts
Nov 26, 2024, 05:12 PM
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced that discussions regarding a ceasefire agreement in Lebanon are in their final stages. During a press conference in Italy, Blinken emphasized that while the agreement has not yet been finalized, he is optimistic about reaching a conclusion soon. He noted that a ceasefire would significantly impact the situation, allowing citizens to return to their homes in northern Israel and southern Lebanon. Furthermore, Blinken indicated that achieving a ceasefire could help deescalate the ongoing conflict in Gaza, affecting Hamas's strategic calculations. He attributed the progress to intensive diplomatic efforts by the United States and its partners, including France, aimed at calming tensions in the region.
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No • 50%
Yes • 50%
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Majority remain displaced • 25%
Temporary shelters provided • 25%
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All returned home • 25%
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Minority returned home • 25%
None returned home • 25%