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What will be the outcome of the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire by January 31, 2025?
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Israel•Lebanon•Hezbollah•Israeli•Benjamin Netanyahu•United States•Amos Hochstein•France•Beirut•Litani River
Resolution / Starting Odds
Ceasefire holds with full compliance • 25%
Ceasefire holds with minor violations • 25%
Ceasefire collapses • 25%
Agreement not reached • 25%
Official statements from involved parties and international monitoring reports
Story
Israel and Lebanon Near Ceasefire Deal with US Mediation; Netanyahu Awaits Cabinet Approval
Nov 25, 2024, 05:08 AM
Israel and Lebanon are on the verge of reaching a ceasefire agreement to end hostilities involving Hezbollah, according to multiple sources. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has reportedly approved the deal in principle during a security consultation, pending final cabinet approval. The United States, represented by envoy Amos Hochstein, has been mediating between the parties and has set a timeline for reaching the agreement, threatening to withdraw from negotiations if a ceasefire is not achieved within days. France is expected to join the monitoring mechanism as part of the agreement. The United States has provided Israel with guarantees for freedom of action in case of any violations by Hezbollah. Despite ongoing heavy bombardment in Beirut and rocket fire from Hezbollah, both sides are working to finalize the details. The proposed ceasefire includes a 60-day pause in fighting, during which Hezbollah would withdraw its forces north of the Litani River, and Israel would pull out from southern Lebanon. The agreement is expected to be signed within days if approved.
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Ceasefire fully implemented • 25%
Ceasefire partially implemented • 25%
Ceasefire not implemented • 25%
Ceasefire broken before completion • 25%
Ceasefire holds completely • 25%
Minor violations occur • 25%
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Ceasefire officially ends • 25%
Ceasefire holds with no major incidents • 25%
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Ceasefire breaks with renewed hostilities • 25%
Ceasefire renegotiated with new terms • 25%
Agreement Signed • 25%
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Other Outcome • 25%
Successful agreement • 25%
Ongoing discussions • 25%
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Formal peace agreement • 25%
Successful ceasefire • 25%
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Agreement finalized and implemented • 25%
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Negotiations ongoing • 25%
Ceasefire approved and implemented • 25%
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Ceasefire holds with full compliance • 25%
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Ceasefire agreed and implemented • 25%
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Negotiations extended • 25%