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How will Hamas respond strategically to the Lebanon ceasefire within three months?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Increase aggression • 25%
Maintain current strategy • 25%
Decrease aggression • 25%
No clear strategy change • 25%
Statements from Hamas or analysis by recognized geopolitical experts
Story
Blinken: Lebanon Ceasefire Agreement Nears Finalization, Could Aid Gaza Conflict Resolution Amid U.S. and France Efforts
Nov 26, 2024, 05:12 PM
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced that discussions regarding a ceasefire agreement in Lebanon are in their final stages. During a press conference in Italy, Blinken emphasized that while the agreement has not yet been finalized, he is optimistic about reaching a conclusion soon. He noted that a ceasefire would significantly impact the situation, allowing citizens to return to their homes in northern Israel and southern Lebanon. Furthermore, Blinken indicated that achieving a ceasefire could help deescalate the ongoing conflict in Gaza, affecting Hamas's strategic calculations. He attributed the progress to intensive diplomatic efforts by the United States and its partners, including France, aimed at calming tensions in the region.
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Full compliance • 25%
Partial compliance • 25%
Non-compliance • 25%
Other response • 25%
Accepts proposal • 25%
Rejects proposal • 25%
Requests modifications • 25%
No response • 25%
Resume negotiations • 25%
Launch military action • 25%
Seek international mediation • 25%
Other • 25%
Accept • 33%
Reject • 33%
Demand Modifications • 34%
Accept • 25%
Reject • 25%
Request modifications • 25%
No response • 25%
Ceasefire extended • 25%
Hostilities resume • 25%
Permanent peace agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Full Compliance • 25%
Partial Compliance • 25%
Non-Compliance • 25%
Other Response • 25%
Increased military actions • 25%
Negotiations initiated • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Other actions • 25%
Agree to new talks • 25%
Agree to previous terms • 25%
Refuse all talks • 25%
Other • 25%
Issuing public statements • 25%
Releasing more propaganda videos • 25%
Engaging in further hostilities • 25%
Seeking negotiations • 25%
Increased rocket attacks • 25%
Negotiation or ceasefire • 25%
Major terrorist attack • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Rocket attacks • 25%
Infiltration attempts • 25%
Diplomatic efforts • 25%
Other • 25%