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What will be the outcome of U.S.-Iran diplomatic interactions by November 2024?
5
Resolution / Starting Odds
Escalation of tensions • 33%
Stabilization of relations • 33%
Breakthrough agreement • 34%
Official statements from the U.S. State Department or Iranian Foreign Ministry
Story
U.S. Military Destroys Iranian-Backed Houthi Drone Over Red Sea on Monday
May 6, 2024, 11:13 PM
The U.S. military has confirmed the destruction of an unmanned aerial system (UAS) launched by Iranian-backed Houthi terrorists over the Red Sea. The incident, which occurred on Monday, involved forces from the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) who engaged and neutralized the drone after it was deemed an imminent threat to U.S. and coalition forces, as well as merchant vessels operating in the area.
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Deterioration • 33%
No significant change • 33%
Improvement • 34%
Improved relations • 33%
Deteriorated relations • 33%
No significant change • 34%
More aggressive posture • 33%
Maintain current trajectory • 34%
Shift towards diplomacy and negotiation • 33%
Increased diplomatic tensions • 33%
Strengthening of security protocols • 33%
No significant change • 34%
Agree to negotiations • 33%
Reject negotiations • 33%
Continue current stance • 33%
Relations worsen significantly • 33%
Relations remain unchanged • 34%
Relations improve • 33%
US extends diplomacy • 25%
Russia strengthens alliances • 25%
China increases economic ties • 25%
No significant change from any • 25%
Improved • 33%
Unchanged • 33%
Worsened • 34%
Increase in visits • 33%
Decrease in visits • 33%
No significant change • 34%