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What will be the outcome of US-HTS negotiations on Syria's future by June 30, 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
US supports HTS-led government • 25%
US supports coalition government • 25%
US withdraws from negotiations • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official statements from the US Department of State or credible international news sources
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US Diplomats Meet HTS Leader Ahmad al-Sharaa in Damascus After Assad's Fall
Dec 20, 2024, 10:37 AM
Senior US diplomats, including Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Barbara Leaf, Ambassador Roger Carstens, and NEA Senior Advisor Daniel Rubinstein, have arrived in Damascus to meet with Syria's new leadership following the ousting of President Bashar al-Assad. This marks the first official US diplomatic visit to Syria in over a decade. The delegation met with Ahmad al-Sharaa, leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the Islamist group now governing the country after leading the offensive that toppled Assad’s regime. The meeting marks the first official contact between the US and HTS, which was formerly affiliated with al-Qaeda. Discussions focused on principles of political transition, security concerns, potential lifting of US sanctions, and the fate of missing Americans in Syria, including journalist Austin Tice. The US delegation is also engaging directly with the Syrian people. The meeting was described as productive by US officials.
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Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Political transition agreement • 25%
Release of U.S. citizens • 25%
Both agreements • 25%
No significant agreement • 25%
Positive outcome with policy changes • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Talks collapse • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased influence • 25%
Decreased influence • 25%
No change • 25%
Disbanded • 25%
Stable control over Syria • 25%
Partial control with ongoing conflicts • 25%
Loss of control to another group • 25%
International intervention • 25%
New government formed • 25%
Prolonged conflict • 25%
International intervention • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
