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What will be the outcome of U.S.-China trade discussions by the end of 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
New trade agreement • 25%
Increased tariffs • 25%
No significant changes • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official announcements from the U.S. Trade Representative or China's Ministry of Commerce
Story
Xi Jinping Congratulates President-elect Trump in Pre-inauguration Call, Discusses Trade and TikTok
Jan 17, 2025, 03:06 PM
Chinese President Xi Jinping held a telephone conversation with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump on Friday, ahead of Trump's inauguration in three days, according to China's state news agency Xinhua. Xi congratulated Trump on his re-election and expressed hope for improved China-U.S. relations during the new U.S. presidency. The two leaders discussed key issues including balancing trade, fentanyl, and the social media app TikTok. Trump described the call as 'very good for both China and the U.S.A.' and stated that 'President Xi and I will do everything possible to make the world more peaceful and safe.' The conversation underscores both sides' commitment to addressing global challenges together.
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Escalation of trade tensions • 25%
New trade agreement • 25%
Increased tariffs • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Other • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Increased tensions • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
New trade agreement • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Trade tensions escalate • 25%
New trade agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
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Status quo maintained • 25%
Trade agreements reached • 25%
Trade tensions escalate • 25%
Other • 25%
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Minor adjustments • 25%
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Other outcomes • 25%
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Trade agreement reached • 25%
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Tariffs imposed • 25%
Tariffs lifted • 25%
No change • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Tariffs avoided through negotiation • 25%
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No significant developments • 25%
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New trade agreement • 25%
Tariff decrease • 25%
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