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What will be the outcome of the U.S.-Vatican-Cuba deal by the end of 2025?
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José Daniel Ferrer•Vatican•Biden•Ferrer•Cuba•Union Patriótica de Cuba•UNPACU•Luis Robles•Otero Alcántara•Maykel Oborbo
Resolution / Starting Odds
All political prisoners released • 25%
Partial release with ongoing negotiations • 25%
No further releases • 25%
Agreement falls apart • 25%
Official statements from involved parties and major international news agencies
Story
Cuba Frees 553 Prisoners Including Opposition Leader José Daniel Ferrer in U.S.-Vatican Deal
Jan 16, 2025, 05:25 PM
Cuban authorities have released José Daniel Ferrer, a prominent opposition leader and political prisoner, as part of an agreement facilitated by the Vatican and the Biden administration. Ferrer, who was detained on July 11, 2021, during widespread anti-government protests, was among 553 prisoners set free under the deal. The release comes after the U.S. removed Cuba from its list of countries that sponsor terrorism. Ferrer, a leader of the Union Patriótica de Cuba (UNPACU), had been subjected to physical and psychological torture during his imprisonment. Alongside Ferrer, Luis Robles was also released, though other political prisoners such as Otero Alcántara and Maykel Oborbo remain incarcerated.
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Other • 25%
Improved diplomatic relations • 25%
Increased economic cooperation • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Some prisoners released • 25%
No prisoners released • 25%
Deal falls through • 25%
All prisoners released • 25%
Deal reversed by Trump administration • 25%
Deal remains intact • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Deal modified by Trump administration • 25%
Uncertain outcome • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
No change • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
United Nations • 25%
European Union • 25%
Other • 25%
Vatican • 25%
Other • 25%
Increase in trade • 25%
Decrease in trade • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Agreement on extradition • 25%
Other • 25%
Joint investigation • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Deteriorated Relations • 25%
Improved Relations • 25%
Insufficient Data • 25%
Neutral Impact • 25%
Significant Improvement • 25%
Deterioration • 25%
No Change • 25%
Moderate Improvement • 25%