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What role will the Vatican play in future Cuba negotiations by the end of 2025?
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José Daniel Ferrer•Vatican•Biden•Ferrer•Cuba•Union Patriótica de Cuba•UNPACU•Luis Robles•Otero Alcántara•Maykel Oborbo
Resolution / Starting Odds
Mediator in further negotiations • 25%
No further involvement • 25%
Facilitator of humanitarian aid • 25%
Critic of Cuban government • 25%
Statements from the Vatican and reports from international news agencies
Story
Cuba Frees 553 Prisoners Including Opposition Leader José Daniel Ferrer in U.S.-Vatican Deal
Jan 16, 2025, 05:25 PM
Cuban authorities have released José Daniel Ferrer, a prominent opposition leader and political prisoner, as part of an agreement facilitated by the Vatican and the Biden administration. Ferrer, who was detained on July 11, 2021, during widespread anti-government protests, was among 553 prisoners set free under the deal. The release comes after the U.S. removed Cuba from its list of countries that sponsor terrorism. Ferrer, a leader of the Union Patriótica de Cuba (UNPACU), had been subjected to physical and psychological torture during his imprisonment. Alongside Ferrer, Luis Robles was also released, though other political prisoners such as Otero Alcántara and Maykel Oborbo remain incarcerated.
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Similar markets
United Nations • 25%
Vatican • 25%
European Union • 25%
Other • 25%
Some prisoners released • 25%
All prisoners released • 25%
Deal falls through • 25%
No prisoners released • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other • 25%
Increased economic cooperation • 25%
Improved diplomatic relations • 25%
Continues support without further action • 25%
Increases diplomatic pressure on Israel • 25%
Withdraws support • 25%
Engages in direct negotiations • 25%
Improved Relations • 25%
Insufficient Data • 25%
Deteriorated Relations • 25%
Neutral Impact • 25%
Cardinal • 25%
Secretary of a Dicastery • 25%
Prefect of another Dicastery • 25%
Other • 25%
No change • 25%
Uncertain outcome • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Other diplomatic gestures • 25%
Release of political prisoners • 25%
Economic reforms • 25%