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Key Player in U.S.-Cuba Diplomacy by End of 2025?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Vatican • 25%
United Nations • 25%
European Union • 25%
Other • 25%
Reports from international diplomatic channels or credible news agencies
Story
U.S. to Remove Cuba from Terror List in Vatican-Brokered Deal to Free 553 Prisoners
Jan 14, 2025, 11:10 PM
In a last-minute decision, the Biden administration announced plans to remove Cuba from the U.S. state sponsors of terrorism list in exchange for the release of 553 prisoners, including political detainees. The move, facilitated by the Vatican, follows discussions between President Miguel Díaz-Canel and Pope Francis. Biden will also rescind Trump-era restrictions and eliminate the restricted list targeting Cuban entities subject to prohibited transactions. The president has notified Congress of his plans, which come just days before he leaves office. Republicans have expressed outrage over the move, vowing to reverse it when President-elect Donald Trump, who had originally added Cuba to the list in 2021, takes office on January 20.
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No significant change • 25%
Increased economic cooperation • 25%
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Improved diplomatic relations • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
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Deteriorated relations • 25%
Uncertain outcome • 25%
Extradition of suspects • 25%
New sanctions imposed • 25%
US removes Cuba from terrorism list • 25%
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Environmental treaty • 25%
Human rights advocacy • 25%
Military alliance • 25%
Trade agreement • 25%
Increased military spending • 25%
Withdrawal from international agreements • 25%
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Kamala Harris • 25%
Antony Blinken • 25%
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China • 25%
Russia • 25%
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