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Market
What will be the outcome of the U.S.-Taliban prisoner swap negotiations by June 30, 2025?
2
Resolution / Starting Odds
Americans released, Guantanamo prisoner released • 25%
Americans released, Guantanamo prisoner not released • 25%
Americans not released, Guantanamo prisoner released • 25%
No releases • 25%
Official announcements from the U.S. State Department or verified news reports
Story
Biden Administration Negotiates Swap of Three Americans in Afghanistan for Guantanamo Prisoner Linked to Osama bin Laden
Jan 7, 2025, 12:13 PM
The Biden administration is engaged in negotiations with the Taliban to secure the release of three Americans detained in Afghanistan since 2022. In exchange, the U.S. is considering releasing a high-profile prisoner from Guantanamo Bay, who is alleged to be an associate of Osama bin Laden. The discussions aim to facilitate a prisoner swap, as reported by the Wall Street Journal.
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Similar markets
Negotiations continue • 25%
Successful swap completed • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Negotiations fail • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No exchange, continued negotiations • 25%
No exchange, negotiations collapse • 25%
Successful exchange with ceasefire • 25%
Successful exchange without ceasefire • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Other • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Improved relations • 25%
Deteriorated relations • 25%
Partial release of hostages • 25%
Negotiations collapse • 25%
No release of hostages • 25%
Successful release of all hostages • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
Partial release of hostages • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Aid continues unchanged • 25%
Aid is reduced • 25%
Aid is halted completely • 25%
Aid is increased • 25%
All hostages released • 25%
New hostages taken • 25%
Partial hostage release • 25%
No hostages released • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Hostages not released • 25%
Hostages released • 25%
Hostages partially released • 25%