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What will be the outcome of the second phase of Israel-Hamas negotiations?
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Israeli•Benjamin Netanyahu•Joe Biden•Donald Trump•Israel•Gaza•Hamas•Netanyahu•Trump•Biden•Israeli attacks
Resolution / Starting Odds
Successful prisoner exchange • 25%
Security guarantees achieved • 25%
Negotiations fail • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Official announcements from the negotiating parties or reports from major news outlets
Story
Netanyahu: U.S. Backs Israel's Return to Gaza War, Trump to Resume Military Supplies
Jan 18, 2025, 08:30 AM
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that both U.S. President Joe Biden and President-elect Donald Trump have assured their full backing for Israel to resume military action in Gaza if Hamas violates the terms of the ceasefire and prisoner swap agreement. The agreement, brokered by the U.S., includes a phased negotiation process, with the second phase focusing on further prisoner exchanges and security guarantees. Netanyahu emphasized that any breach of the agreement would lead to a resumption of intense fighting, with the U.S. providing military and diplomatic support. He also stated that Trump has committed to resuming military supplies that were previously halted under the Biden administration. Netanyahu attributed the deal to Israel's military successes and reiterated that Hamas would bear full responsibility for any violations. The agreement follows over 15 months of Israeli attacks on Gaza, which have resulted in more than 46,000 deaths. Negotiations for the second phase are set to begin after the first phase, which lasts 42 days.
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Partial exchange • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No exchange • 25%
Complete exchange • 25%
Negotiations collapse • 25%
Military escalation resumes • 25%
Temporary extension of ceasefire • 25%
Successful agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire holds and hostages released • 25%
Ceasefire breaks but hostages released • 25%
Ceasefire breaks and hostages not released • 25%
Ceasefire holds but hostages not released • 25%
Ceasefire ends with resumed hostilities • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire extended • 25%
Permanent peace agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Partial agreement with modifications • 25%
60-day ceasefire agreed • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Successful ceasefire • 25%
Other • 25%
Partial agreement • 25%
Failed negotiations • 25%
Ceasefire without hostages released • 25%
No ceasefire, no hostages released • 25%
No ceasefire, hostages released • 25%
Ceasefire with hostages released • 25%
Partial hostage return • 25%
All hostages returned • 25%
Ceasefire not implemented • 25%
No hostages returned • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Partial hostage release • 25%
Ceasefire agreement • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Partial agreement (e.g., hostage release only) • 25%
Extended ceasefire • 25%
Resumption of hostilities • 25%
Permanent peace agreement • 25%
No Agreement • 25%
Partial Agreement • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Hostage Release Only • 25%
Other • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Ceasefire fails • 25%
Extended negotiations • 25%