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Outcome of Phase II Israel-Hamas ceasefire negotiations by end of 42-day period
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Israeli•Benjamin Netanyahu•Joe Biden•Donald Trump•United States•Israel•Gaza•Hamas•Netanyahu•Trump•Biden•Palestinian
Resolution / Starting Odds
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Ceasefire fails • 25%
Extended negotiations • 25%
Other • 25%
Official announcements from the Israeli government or credible news organizations
Story
Netanyahu Assured by Biden and Trump of US Support and Weapons Return for Gaza Fighting if Ceasefire Fails
Jan 17, 2025, 11:09 PM
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has informed his cabinet that he has received assurances from both President Joe Biden and President-elect Donald Trump that the United States will support Israel's return to intense fighting in Gaza if negotiations on Phase II of the ceasefire agreement with Hamas fail and Hamas does not accept Israel's security demands. Netanyahu also stated that upon Trump's inauguration, Israel will receive back all the weapons that were previously seized or denied by the Biden administration. This assurance is considered crucial as it would provide Israel with additional tools to resume fighting if necessary. The Israeli government has approved a deal with Hamas that includes the release of 33 Israeli hostages in exchange for over 1,700 Palestinian detainees during the first phase of the ceasefire, which is set to last 42 days and begin on Sunday.
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Ceasefire holds but hostages not released • 25%
Ceasefire breaks but hostages released • 25%
Ceasefire breaks and hostages not released • 25%
Ceasefire holds and hostages released • 25%
Full ceasefire agreement • 25%
Renewed hostilities • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Partial ceasefire with conditions • 25%
No Agreement Reached • 25%
Ceasefire Talks Suspended • 25%
Complete Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
Partial Ceasefire Agreement • 25%
All hostages returned • 25%
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No hostages returned • 25%
Ceasefire not implemented • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Negotiations continue without agreement • 25%
Negotiations break down completely • 25%
Successful agreement reached • 25%
Military escalation resumes • 25%
Temporary extension of ceasefire • 25%
Negotiations collapse • 25%
Other • 25%
Permanent ceasefire agreed • 25%
Temporary ceasefire agreed • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Ceasefire agreement reached • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Hostage release deal only • 25%
Sustained peace • 25%
Partial implementation with tensions • 25%
Resumption of conflict • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
Complete exchange • 25%
Other outcome • 25%
No exchange • 25%
Partial exchange • 25%
Ceasefire extended • 25%
Other • 25%
New negotiations • 25%
Resumption of hostilities • 25%
Extension of ceasefire • 25%
Ceasefire holds • 25%
Ceasefire broken • 25%
Partial ceasefire agreement • 25%
Talks postponed • 25%
No agreement reached • 25%
Complete ceasefire agreement • 25%