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What will be the outcome of the next Russian Oreshnik missile launch at Ukraine?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Hit intended target • 25%
Missed target • 25%
Intercepted • 25%
Launch aborted • 25%
Reports from international news agencies and military intelligence assessments
Story
Pentagon Warns Russia May Again Launch Experimental Hypersonic Oreshnik Missile at Ukraine in Coming Days
Dec 11, 2024, 06:47 PM
The United States has warned that Russia may launch its new hypersonic intermediate-range ballistic missile, the Oreshnik, against Ukraine in the coming days. A U.S. intelligence assessment concluded on Wednesday that Russia could use the experimental missile again, following previous deployments. Pentagon Deputy Press Secretary Sabrina Singh stated that Russia is "trying to use every weapon that they have in their arsenal to intimidate Ukraine." Washington views the Oreshnik missile more as an attempt at intimidation than a significant change on the battlefield. Russian President Vladimir Putin has claimed that the hypersonic missile makes nuclear weapons obsolete. The warning comes as Russia alleges that Ukraine used U.S.-supplied ATACMS missiles to target a military airfield.
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Successful tests with no international response • 25%
Successful tests with international condemnation • 25%
Failed tests • 25%
No tests conducted • 25%
No launch • 25%
Intercepted • 25%
Hit military target • 25%
Hit civilian target • 25%
Successful launch, no impact • 25%
Successful launch, impact near Kiev • 25%
Launch fails • 25%
Launch aborted • 25%
Significant damage to infrastructure • 25%
Significant civilian casualties • 25%
Both significant damage and casualties • 25%
Neither significant damage nor casualties • 25%
Successful tests with no major incidents • 25%
Successful tests with major incidents • 25%
Unsuccessful tests • 25%
Testing halted • 25%
Significant damage to infrastructure • 25%
Minimal damage to infrastructure • 25%
No significant damage reported • 25%
No attack occurs • 25%
Increased military escalation • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations initiated • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other • 25%
Kyiv • 25%
Dnipro • 25%
Kharkiv • 25%
Other • 25%
Lviv • 25%
Significant escalation • 25%
Minor impact • 25%
No noticeable change • 25%
De-escalation • 25%
Significant infrastructure damage • 25%
Civilian casualties • 25%
Temporary suspension of flights • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Significant damage and casualties • 25%
Limited damage, no casualties • 25%
Missile intercepted or failed launch • 25%
No missile strike • 25%
Strike occurs without warning • 25%
Strike occurs with warning • 25%
No strike occurs • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%