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What will be the outcome of a potential Oreshnik missile strike on Ukraine by December 31, 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
No launch • 25%
Intercepted • 25%
Hit military target • 25%
Hit civilian target • 25%
Reports from Ukrainian government and international news agencies
Story
U.S. Warns of Potential Russian Oreshnik Missile Attack on Ukraine in Coming Days
Dec 11, 2024, 02:32 PM
U.S. officials have warned that Russia may launch another experimental Oreshnik missile at Ukraine in the coming days. The missile, an intermediate-range ballistic missile, is not considered a game-changer on the battlefield but is seen as an attempt to terrorize Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has issued an update on a new missile test, describing the situation as 'hell' being fired on Russia. The U.S. is focusing on providing Ukraine with the necessary air defenses to protect against Russian missiles and drones. The Oreshnik missile has been described as lethal by U.S. intelligence, although its impact on the conflict is assessed to be limited.
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Similar markets
Missile intercepted or failed launch • 25%
No missile strike • 25%
Limited damage, no casualties • 25%
Significant damage and casualties • 25%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
Kharkiv • 25%
Other • 25%
Kyiv • 25%
Lviv • 25%
Dnipro • 25%
Reversal of policy • 25%
Other • 25%
Modification of policy • 25%
Continuation of current policy • 25%
Condemnation • 25%
Sanctions • 25%
Military Aid • 25%
No significant response • 25%
