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What will be the outcome if Russia launches a missile strike on Ukraine by January 31, 2025?
3
Resolution / Starting Odds
Significant damage and casualties • 25%
Limited damage, no casualties • 25%
Missile intercepted or failed launch • 25%
No missile strike • 25%
Reports from credible news agencies or official government statements detailing the aftermath
Story
U.S. Warns of Possible Hypersonic Oreshnik Missile Strike by Russia on Ukraine
Dec 11, 2024, 08:12 PM
The United States has issued a warning that Russia might deploy its new experimental hypersonic Oreshnik missile against Ukraine in the coming days. Pentagon spokesperson Sabrina Singh confirmed the possibility of another missile strike but did not provide a specific date. U.S. intelligence views the missile as an attempt at intimidation rather than a significant shift in the battlefield dynamics. The warning comes amidst ongoing tensions, with both nations seeking leverage in negotiations to end the nearly three-year conflict.
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Similar markets
No launch • 25%
Intercepted • 25%
Hit military target • 25%
Hit civilian target • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Sanctions against Russia • 25%
Increased military aid to Ukraine • 25%
Diplomatic condemnation • 25%
No significant response • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
