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What will be the outcome of Russia's RS-26 missile strike on Kiev by end of 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Strike occurs without warning • 25%
Strike occurs with warning • 25%
No strike occurs • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Official statements from Russian and Ukrainian governments and international news agencies
Story
Russia Prepares RS-26 Missile Strike on Kiev, Warns Civilians
Nov 21, 2024, 05:19 PM
Russian forces are reportedly preparing to launch the RS-26 intercontinental ballistic missile, weighing 36,000 kg with a range of 6,000 km, in a possible attack on Kiev, Ukraine. President Vladimir Putin has stated that Russia considers itself entitled to use weapons against military facilities of countries that use their weapons against Russia. He also mentioned that if Russia uses hypersonic weapons against Ukraine, civilians will be warned in advance to leave potential strike zones. This comes amidst reports of Russia preparing for a massive missile attack on Ukraine.
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Successful launch, no impact • 25%
Successful launch, impact near Kiev • 25%
Launch fails • 25%
Launch aborted • 25%
Increased military escalation • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations initiated • 25%
No significant change • 25%
Other • 25%
Significant damage to Russian military infrastructure • 25%
Limited damage • 25%
No significant impact • 25%
Unknown or other • 25%
Military Retaliation • 25%
Diplomatic Measures • 25%
Cyber Attacks • 25%
Other • 25%
Significant damage and casualties • 25%
Limited damage, no casualties • 25%
Missile intercepted or failed launch • 25%
No missile strike • 25%
Increased military aid to Ukraine • 25%
Sanctions against Russia • 25%
Diplomatic negotiations • 25%
Other outcomes • 25%
Less than 20 • 25%
20 to 29 • 25%
30 to 39 • 25%
40 or more • 25%
