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What will be the outcome of the next Philippines resupply mission to Ayungin Shoal by Dec 31, 2024?
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Resolution / Starting Odds
Successful with no incidents • 25%
Successful with minor incidents • 25%
Unsuccessful • 25%
Postponed • 25%
Official statements from AFP, PCG, and credible news sources
Story
Philippines Completes Resupply Mission to Ayungin Shoal with U.S. Coast Guard Support Despite Chinese Presence
Sep 27, 2024, 07:01 AM
The Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP), with support from the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG), successfully completed a resupply mission to the BRP Sierra Madre at Ayungin Shoal on September 26. The mission, confirmed by AFP spokesperson Col Francel Padilla, involved delivering essential supplies and rotating personnel despite the presence of Chinese vessels in the vicinity. The U.S. Coast Guard has been advising and assisting Manila in these missions. The M/V Lapu Lapu was seen approaching BRP Sierra Madre during the operation.
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Successful with U.S. assistance • 25%
Successful without U.S. assistance • 25%
Unsuccessful due to Chinese interference • 25%
Unsuccessful due to other reasons • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Agreement continues without issues • 25%
China enforces new restrictions • 25%
Philippines withdraws from agreement • 25%
Other • 25%
Formal protest lodged with international bodies • 25%
Increased naval patrols in the area • 25%
Engagement in diplomatic talks with China • 25%
No significant action taken • 25%
Chinese ship withdraws • 25%
Philippine ship withdraws • 25%
Both ships remain • 25%
Conflict escalates • 25%
Philippines removes vessel • 25%
Philippines maintains vessel • 25%
Joint management agreement • 25%
Other • 25%
New agreement reached • 25%
Philippines files protest • 25%
China imposes sanctions • 25%
Other • 25%
Deploy another vessel • 25%
Engage in a new standoff • 25%
Withdraw all vessels • 25%
No significant action • 25%
Remains in current status • 25%
Repaired and operational • 25%
Removed from shoal • 25%
Other • 25%
Philippine military exercise • 25%
Chinese military exercise • 25%
Joint exercise with allies • 25%
No significant movement • 25%
Increase in Chinese vessels • 25%
Decrease in Chinese vessels • 25%
No change in number of vessels • 25%
Philippine vessels forced to withdraw • 25%
Peaceful resolution • 25%
Diplomatic protest • 25%
Military standoff • 25%
Other • 25%