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Outcome of next major incident involving Philippine and China Coast Guards in South China Sea by December 31, 2024?
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Philippine Coast Guard•BRP Teresa Magbanua•Sabina Shoal•South China Sea•Manila•Beijing•China Coast Guard•Xianbin Jiao•China•Escoda Shoal•Philippine
Resolution / Starting Odds
Peaceful resolution • 25%
Diplomatic protest • 25%
Military standoff • 25%
Other • 25%
News reports and official government statements
Story
Philippine Vessel BRP Teresa Magbanua Leaves Disputed Sabina Shoal After Five Months
Sep 15, 2024, 05:11 AM
The Philippine Coast Guard's vessel, BRP Teresa Magbanua, has left the disputed Sabina Shoal in the South China Sea after more than five months of sentinel duties. The 97-meter ship, which had been anchored at the contested reef since April 2024, returned to its home port. This move marks the end of a prolonged standoff between Manila and Beijing over the maritime feature. The China Coast Guard confirmed the departure, stating that the vessel had been illegally anchored in the lagoon of Xianbin Jiao, infringing on China's territorial claims. The vessel also left Escoda Shoal, as confirmed by Philippine government officials and the national maritime council.
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Similar markets
Formal diplomatic protest by Philippines • 25%
New maritime restrictions by China • 25%
Third-party diplomatic intervention • 25%
No significant actions taken • 25%
No further incidents • 25%
Minor incidents • 25%
Major incidents • 25%
Escalation to armed conflict • 25%
Naval encounter • 25%
Airspace violation • 25%
Fishing rights dispute • 25%
Other • 25%
Military engagement • 25%
Diplomatic resolution • 25%
Economic sanctions • 25%
Status quo maintained • 25%
De-escalation • 25%
Continued Standoff • 25%
Military Engagement • 25%
Diplomatic Resolution • 25%
China found at fault • 25%
Philippines found at fault • 25%
Both found at fault • 25%
No fault determined • 25%
China is found at fault • 25%
Philippines is found at fault • 25%
Both are found at fault • 25%
No fault determined • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
Increase in Chinese vessels • 25%
Decrease in Chinese vessels • 25%
No change in number of vessels • 25%
Philippine vessels forced to withdraw • 25%
Yes • 50%
No • 50%
